mebb.de
Iran-Krise

Etwas verspätet steigt heute auch die NYT in die Geschichte mit den „explosive formed penetrator” (EFP) ein, hat aber wenig beizusteuern, um zu belegen oder zu wiederlegen, dass der Iran irakische Aufständische mit diesen hochtödlichen Waffen beliefert.

Der Artikel von Michael R. Gordon stützt sich in den wesentlichen Passagen auf Aussagen von Offiziellen und Geheimdienstmitarbeiter, ohne überzeugende Beweise zu liefern.

The assertion of an Iranian role in supplying the device to Shiite militias reflects broad agreement among American intelligence agencies, although officials acknowledge that the picture is not entirely complete.

Zu einigen Abschnitten habe ich mir Fragezeichen am Rand notiert. Beispielsweise:

The focus of American concern is known as an “explosively formed penetrator,” a particularly deadly type of roadside bomb being used by Shiite groups in attacks on American troops in Iraq.

Angriffe von schiitischen Gruppen auf amerikanische Truppen? Nach meinem Stand der Kenntnisse sind fast ausschliesslich sunnitische Gruppen für derartige Angriffe verantwortlich. Schiitische Attacken sind die seltenen Ausnahmen und meist zählen die Täter nicht zu den großen schiitischen Organisationen sondern eher zu Splittergruppen oder (semi)kriminellen Banden.

In the last three months of 2006, attacks using the weapons accounted for a significant portion of Americans killed and wounded in Iraq, though less than a quarter of the total, military officials say.

Zahlen?

An American intelligence assessment described to The New York Times said that “as part of its strategy in Iraq, Iran is implementing a deliberate, calibrated policy — approved by Supreme Leader Khamenei and carried out by the Quds Force — to provide explosives support and training to select Iraqi Shia militant groups to conduct attacks against coalition targets.”

Das ist eine recht kühne Aussage. Von Einzelaktionen radikaler Gruppen innerhalb wie außerhalb der Revolutionären Garden bis zu einer „Strategie”, die von Ayatollah Ali Khamene-i abgesegnet wurde, ist es eine lange Beweiskette.

Gordon weiß darüber hinaus aber auch zu berichten, dass die US Regierung an diesem Wochenende erstmals die lang angekündigten Beweise vorlegen will.

The Bush administration is expected to make public this weekend some of what intelligence agencies regard as an increasing body of evidence pointing to an Iranian link, including information gleaned from Iranians and Iraqis captured in recent American raids on an Iranian office in Erbil and another site in Baghdad.

The information includes interrogation reports from the raids indicating that money and weapons components are being brought into Iraq from across the Iranian border in vehicles that travel at night. One of the detainees has identified an Iranian operative as having supplied two of the bombs. The border crossing at Mehran is identified as a major crossing point for the smuggling of money and weapons for Shiite militants, according to the intelligence.

Mehr noch:

According to American intelligence agencies, the Iranians are also believed to have provided Shiite militants with rocket-propelled grenades, shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, mortars, 122-millimeter rockets and TNT.

Among the intelligence that the United States is expected to make public this weekend is information indicating that some of these weapons said to have been made in Iran were carried into Iraq in recent years. Examples include a shoulder-fired antiaircraft missile that was fired at a plane flying near the Baghdad airport in 2004 but which failed to launch properly; an Iranian rocket-propelled grenade made in 2006; and an Iranian 81-millimeter mortar made in 2006.

Wir sind gespannt.