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Iran-Krise

… was ich Ihnen durchaus nicht übel nehmen würde, es gibt andere, die ebenfalls einen israelischen Angriff auf iranische Atomanlagen für wenig wahrscheinlich halten.

Beispielsweise Yossi Melman, Militärexperte der israelischen Haaretz. Meine stark gekürzte Wiedergabe seines Artikels:

[O]ne cannot conclude, as many have following a report in The New York Times (June 19) that an Israeli attack is certainly around the corner. Not only has such a decision not been made in any relevant forum in Israel - the question has not even been discussed.

The decision to attack Iran to foil its nuclear program is from Israel’s point of view a last resort, and the chances of it happening depend on many variables, which are unfolding over various time frames ­ some overlapping, others running in parallel.

The most important variable is Israel’s coordination with the United States. … This could be a tacit understanding, a flashing yellow light, or a direct request for a green light. Such support is conditioned first and foremost on the question of who will occupy the White House come November.

Another variable is international sanctions on Iran. … Israel has still not given up hope that in Moscow and Beijing will change their policies and impose harsher sanctions.

Another significant factor is the domestic situation in Iran. Next May, presidential elections are scheduled in Iran.

The fourth variable, upon which every political decision in Israel is taken, is of course the operational preparedness of the air force and the other agencies that are party to a strike. Is Israel capable of carrying out a significant blow to the essential sites where Iran is developing nuclear weapons, to the point that the process is stalled for several years?

Only when there are clear answers to these issues will Israeli leaders make a decision.